{"id":592,"date":"2018-12-06T20:58:17","date_gmt":"2018-12-06T19:58:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/?p=592"},"modified":"2018-12-28T21:20:59","modified_gmt":"2018-12-28T20:20:59","slug":"hanyan-elnek-majd-szegeden-100-ev-mulva","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/en\/hanyan-elnek-majd-szegeden-100-ev-mulva\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00e1nyan \u00e9lnek majd Szegeden 100 \u00e9v m\u00falva?"},"content":{"rendered":"<!-- Error, Advert is not available at this time due to schedule\/geolocation restrictions! -->\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1469 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/273_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"586\" srcset=\"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/273_2.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/273_2-632x309.jpg 632w, https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/273_2-768x375.jpg 768w, https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/273_2-1020x498.jpg 1020w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ma Szegeden 161 137 f\u0151 \u00e9li mindennapjait. Sz\u00e1z \u00e9vvel ezel\u0151tt ez a sz\u00e1m \u00e9pp, hogy el\u00e9rte a sz\u00e1zezret, amivel Szeged volt az akkori Magyarorsz\u00e1g m\u00e1sodik legnagyobb v\u00e1rosa. A k\u00e9rd\u00e9s most az, h\u00e1nyan \u00e9lnek majd Szegeden 2118-ban?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Am\u00edg az el\u0151z\u0151 bekezd\u00e9st elolvastad, 43 ember sz\u00fcletett a F\u00f6ld\u00f6n. Ez azt jelenti, hogy naponta 353 000-en sz\u00fcletnek a bolyg\u00f3n. Ez a sz\u00e1m Magyarorsz\u00e1gon 261, Szegeden pedig valamivel t\u00f6bb, mint 7. Persze ez csak egy adat, hozz\u00e1 kell m\u00e9g venn\u00fcnk a hal\u00e1loz\u00e1sokat \u00e9s a v\u00e1ndorl\u00e1st is.\u00a0Ahhoz pedig, hogy t\u00f6bb k\u00e9pet is adjunk a lehets\u00e9ges eredm\u00e9nyre, t\u00f6bb m\u00f3dszert fogunk haszn\u00e1lni.<\/p>\n<!-- Error, Advert is not available at this time due to schedule\/geolocation restrictions! -->\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>1. Az el\u0151z\u0151 100 \u00e9v adatait v\u00e9ve<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Felt\u00e9telezz\u00fck, hogy a v\u00e1ros lakoss\u00e1ga a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 sz\u00e1z \u00e9vben az 1918-2018. k\u00f6z\u00f6tti mint\u00e1t k\u00f6veti &#8211; ami persze el\u00e9g irre\u00e1lis, tekintve, hogy val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg nem lesz egy \u00fajabb II. vil\u00e1gh\u00e1bor\u00fa \u00e9s az azt k\u00f6vet\u0151 n\u00e9pess\u00e9grobban\u00e1s sem. N\u00e9zz\u00fck el\u0151sz\u00f6r meg, h\u00e1nyan \u00e9ltek a v\u00e1rosban az elm\u00falt sz\u00e1z esztend\u0151ben. Pluszban itt van m\u00e9g \u00f6tven \u00e9v (1870-1920.), amivel most nem sz\u00e1molunk, de az\u00e9rt j\u00f3l mutat \u00e9s p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul szeml\u00e9lteti a nagy\u00e1rvizet is, hogy mennyire lenyomta a n\u00f6veked\u00e9st.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"infogram-embed\" data-id=\"f701332c-680a-407d-8dbd-5ce2aa10039c\" data-type=\"interactive\" data-title=\"Szeged n\u00e9pess\u00e9ge 1870-2011\"><\/div>\n<p><script>!function(e,t,n,s){var i=\"InfogramEmbeds\",o=e.getElementsByTagName(t)[0],d=\/^http:\/.test(e.location)?\"http:\":\"https:\";if(\/^\\\/{2}\/.test(s)&&(s=d+s),window[i]&&window[i].initialized)window[i].process&&window[i].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var a=e.createElement(t);a.async=1,a.id=n,a.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(a,o)}}(document,\"script\",\"infogram-async\",\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed-loader-min.js\");<\/script><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>1920. \u00e9s 2018. k\u00f6z\u00f6tt 46,65%-kal n\u0151tt a v\u00e1ros n\u00e9pess\u00e9ge, ezt el\u0151revet\u00edtve 2118-ban Szegeden <strong>236 205<\/strong> f\u0151 \u00e9lne, ami valahogy m\u00e9gis re\u00e1lisan hangzik. A v\u00e1ros n\u00e9pess\u00e9ge jelenleg stagn\u00e1l,<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<h4>| nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l ugyanannyian \u00e9lnek ma Szegeden, mint a 70-es \u00e9vek v\u00e9g\u00e9n.<\/h4>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Egy Szeged-m\u00e9ret\u0171 lengyel v\u00e1rosban, Olsztynban ez id\u0151 alatt k\u00f6zel 30%-kal n\u0151tt a lakoss\u00e1g sz\u00e1ma.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>2. Ha minden marad, ahogy most van<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Tegy\u00fck fel, hogy Szeged n\u00e9pess\u00e9g a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 t\u00edz \u00e9vtizedben pontosan ugyanazt a mint\u00e1t fogja k\u00f6vetni, mint az el\u0151z\u0151 egyben. Picit emelkedik, azt\u00e1n cs\u00f6kken egy nagyobbat, majd \u00fajb\u00f3l n\u0151nek a sz\u00e1mok. De pontosan hogy is volt ez?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"infogram-embed\" data-id=\"a5e3d5c7-3628-4d76-a729-bcd85021f970\" data-type=\"interactive\" data-title=\"Copy: Szeged n\u00e9pess\u00e9ge 1870-2011\"><\/div>\n<p><script>!function(e,t,n,s){var i=\"InfogramEmbeds\",o=e.getElementsByTagName(t)[0],d=\/^http:\/.test(e.location)?\"http:\":\"https:\";if(\/^\\\/{2}\/.test(s)&&(s=d+s),window[i]&&window[i].initialized)window[i].process&&window[i].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var a=e.createElement(t);a.async=1,a.id=n,a.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(a,o)}}(document,\"script\",\"infogram-async\",\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed-loader-min.js\");<\/script><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Az elm\u00falt t\u00edz \u00e9v adatait b\u00f6ng\u00e9szve l\u00e1thatjuk, hogy a lakoss\u00e1gsz\u00e1m 5,17%-kal cs\u00f6kkent. Ha ez a cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s minden \u00e9vtizedben \u00fajra \u00e9s \u00fajra megt\u00f6rt\u00e9nik, akkor 2118-ra mind\u00f6sszesen <strong>94 757<\/strong> lak\u00f3 marad. Ez el\u00e9g drasztikus lenne, olyan, mintha Budapestr\u0151l hirtelen elt\u0171nne t\u00f6bb, mint 700 000 ember, vagy Mak\u00f3n sz\u00e1z \u00e9v m\u00falva alig t\u00f6bb, mint 10 000 ember \u00e9lne.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-652\" src=\"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/276_1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" srcset=\"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/276_1.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/276_1-632x356.jpg 632w, https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/276_1-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/276_1-1020x574.jpg 1020w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><br \/>\nFot\u00f3: Sz\u0171cs D\u00e1niel \/ Szegeder<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>3. K\u00f6vetve a vil\u00e1gra vetett j\u00f3slatot<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs szerint a vil\u00e1gn\u00e9pess\u00e9g 2100-ra el\u00e9ri a 11 milli\u00e1rd 213 milli\u00f3 f\u0151t. Ezt ha tov\u00e1bbvet\u00edtj\u00fck, 2118-ra a F\u00f6ld\u00f6n 12 488 139 826 ember \u00e9l majd, ez 37,7%-kal t\u00f6bb, mint a mai 7 656 847 000. Ezt a n\u00f6veked\u00e9st Szegedre vet\u00edtve a v\u00e1rosban sz\u00e1z \u00e9v m\u00falva <strong>221 865<\/strong>-en \u00e9ln\u00e9nek, ami 15 ezerrel kevesebb, mint az els\u0151 m\u00f3dszer eredm\u00e9nye.<\/p>\n<!-- Error, Advert is not available at this time due to schedule\/geolocation restrictions! -->\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Verdikt<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Persze egy ilyet lehetetlen kisz\u00e1molni, annyi \u00f6sszetev\u0151t \u00e9s v\u00e1laszt nem tudunk, amik elengedhetetlenek a pontos eredm\u00e9nyhez. Nagyban f\u00fcgg ez a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gt\u00f3l, a helyi er\u0151kt\u0151l, att\u00f3l, hogy milyen beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok l\u00e9tes\u00fclnek a v\u00e1rosban \u00e9s k\u00f6rny\u00e9k\u00e9n (pl. az ELI val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg l\u00e1that\u00f3an fogja n\u00f6velni a n\u00e9pess\u00e9get) stb. \u00c9s azzal nem is sz\u00e1moltunk, hogy b\u00e1rmikor belefolyhatunk egy \u00fajabb h\u00e1bor\u00faba.<\/p>\n<p>Ak\u00e1r az els\u0151, ak\u00e1r a harmadik v\u00e1lik be, szinte biztos, hogy a v\u00e1ros sokat fog m\u00e9g ny\u00fajt\u00f3zkodni a t\u00e9rk\u00e9pen, hiszen egyre nagyobb ig\u00e9ny van a szem\u00e9lyes terek n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9re, a n\u00e9pess\u00e9g ink\u00e1bb k\u00f6lt\u00f6zik nagy kertes h\u00e1zakba, minthogy maradjon egy viszonylag kis lak\u00e1sban.<br \/>\nEgyed\u00fcl a m\u00e1sodik verzi\u00f3n\u00e1l nem v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 a v\u00e1ros ter\u00fcleti n\u00f6veked\u00e9se, de cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se sem. Legfeljebb szell\u0151sebb lesz az \u00e9let, kevesebb \u00fczlettel \u00e9s rendezv\u00e9nnyel, b\u00e1r ez ut\u00f3bbiak ink\u00e1bb f\u00fcggnek a lak\u00f3k anyagi helyzet\u00e9t\u0151l, mintsem sz\u00e1m\u00e1t\u00f3l.<\/p>\n<div class=\"infogram-embed\" data-id=\"81e2333d-9a80-4bd8-89c8-7eb2b58d5599\" data-type=\"interactive\" data-title=\"\"><\/div>\n<p><script>!function(e,t,n,s){var i=\"InfogramEmbeds\",o=e.getElementsByTagName(t)[0],d=\/^http:\/.test(e.location)?\"http:\":\"https:\";if(\/^\\\/{2}\/.test(s)&&(s=d+s),window[i]&&window[i].initialized)window[i].process&&window[i].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var a=e.createElement(t);a.async=1,a.id=n,a.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(a,o)}}(document,\"script\",\"infogram-async\",\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed-loader-min.js\");<\/script><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<form\n\t\t\t\tid=\"forminator-module-645\"\n\t\t\t\tclass=\"forminator-ui forminator-poll forminator-poll-645 forminator-design--default   forminator_ajax\"\n\t\t\t\tmethod=\"post\"\n\t\t\t\tdata-forminator-render=\"0\"\n\t\t\t\tdata-form-id=\"645\"\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tdata-design=\"default\"\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tstyle=\"display: none;\"\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tdata-uid=\"6a723712463a7\" action=\"\"\n\t\t\t><div role=\"alert\" aria-live=\"polite\" class=\"forminator-response-message\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div><div class=\"forminator-poll-header\"><span id=\"forminator-poll-645--title\" class=\"forminator-question forminator-poll--question\">Szerintem 100 \u00e9v m\u00falva...<\/span><\/div><div class=\"forminator-poll-body\"><div role=\"radiogroup\" class=\"forminator-field\" aria-labelledby=\"forminator-poll-645--title\"><label for=\"645-0-answer-1\" class=\"forminator-radio\"><input id=\"645-0-answer-1\" type=\"radio\" data-required=\"\" name=\"645\" value=\"answer-1\"  \/><span class=\"forminator-radio-bullet\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"forminator-radio-label\">236 205-en \u00e9lnek majd Szegeden.<\/span><\/label><label for=\"645-0-answer-4\" class=\"forminator-radio\"><input id=\"645-0-answer-4\" type=\"radio\" data-required=\"\" name=\"645\" value=\"answer-4\"  \/><span class=\"forminator-radio-bullet\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"forminator-radio-label\">m\u00e1r \u00fagyis lakhatatlan lesz a F\u00f6ld.<\/span><\/label><label for=\"645-0-answer-2\" class=\"forminator-radio\"><input id=\"645-0-answer-2\" type=\"radio\" data-required=\"\" name=\"645\" value=\"answer-2\"  \/><span class=\"forminator-radio-bullet\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"forminator-radio-label\">94 757-en \u00e9lnek majd Szegeden.<\/span><\/label><label for=\"645-0-answer-5\" class=\"forminator-radio\"><input id=\"645-0-answer-5\" type=\"radio\" data-required=\"\" name=\"645\" value=\"answer-5\"  \/><span class=\"forminator-radio-bullet\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"forminator-radio-label\">t\u00f6bb milli\u00f3an \u00e9lnek majd Szegeden \u00e9s f\u0151v\u00e1ros is lesz\u00fcnk.<\/span><\/label><label for=\"645-0-answer-3\" class=\"forminator-radio\"><input id=\"645-0-answer-3\" type=\"radio\" data-required=\"\" name=\"645\" value=\"answer-3\"  \/><span class=\"forminator-radio-bullet\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"forminator-radio-label\">221 865-en \u00e9lnek majd Szegeden.<\/span><\/label><\/div><\/div><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"referer_url\" value=\"\" \/><div class=\"forminator-poll-footer forminator-poll--actions\"><button class=\"forminator-button forminator-button-submit\" ><span>Szavazok<\/span><i class=\"forminator-icon-loader forminator-loading\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i><\/button><a href=\"?results=true&#038;form_id=645&#038;render_id=0\" class=\"forminator-link\">View results<\/a><\/div><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"forminator_nonce\" name=\"forminator_nonce\" value=\"2780476e04\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"_wp_http_referer\" value=\"\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"form_id\" value=\"645\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"page_id\" value=\"592\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"render_id\" value=\"0\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"action\" value=\"forminator_submit_form_poll\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"trp-form-language\" value=\"en\"\/><\/form>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00c9rdekel mi t\u00f6rt\u00e9nik Szegeden, mik \u00e9p\u00fclnek, vagy \u00e9pp milyen kincsek t\u0171nnek el az utc\u00e1kr\u00f3l? K\u00f6vesd a Szegedert <a href=\"http:\/\/facebook.com\/szegeder\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Facebookon<\/a> \u00e9s <a href=\"http:\/\/instagram.com\/szegeder.hu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Instagramon<\/a>.<br \/>\n<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<script>(function(d, s, id) {\n\t\t\t\t\t  var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];\n\t\t\t\t\t  if (d.getElementById(id)) return;\n\t\t\t\t\t  js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id;\n\t\t\t\t\t  js.async=true; \n\t\t\t\t\t  js.src = \"\/\/connect.facebook.net\/hu_HU\/all.js#xfbml=1&appId=OPTIONAL_SEE_FAQ\";\n\t\t\t\t\t  fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);\n\t\t\t\t\t}(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));<\/script> <div class=\"efbl-like-box 1\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"fb-page\" data-animclass=\"fadeIn\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/szegeder\" data-hide-cover=\"false\" data-width=\"800\"   data-height=\"\" data-show-facepile=\"true\"  data-show-posts=\"false\" data-adapt-container-width=\"true\" data-hide-cta=\"false\" data-small-header=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div> \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<!-- Error, Advert is not available at this time due to schedule\/geolocation restrictions! -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ma Szegeden 161 137 f\u0151 \u00e9li mindennapjait. Sz\u00e1z \u00e9vvel ezel\u0151tt ez a sz\u00e1m \u00e9pp, hogy el\u00e9rte a sz\u00e1zezret, amivel Szeged volt az akkori Magyarorsz\u00e1g m\u00e1sodik legnagyobb v\u00e1rosa. A k\u00e9rd\u00e9s most az, h\u00e1nyan \u00e9lnek majd Szegeden 2118-ban? Am\u00edg az el\u0151z\u0151 bekezd\u00e9st elolvastad, 43 ember sz\u00fcletett a F\u00f6ld\u00f6n. Ez azt jelenti, hogy naponta 353 000-en sz\u00fcletnek a [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[39,41,40],"acf":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=592"}],"version-history":[{"count":78,"href":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3938,"href":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592\/revisions\/3938"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/szegederarchivum.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}